Can Pakistan Afford Stringent Stance For or Against Israel?

"Palestinian people have the full diplomatic, moral and political support of the Pakistani nation and we will continue to support the principled stand” – were the reported comments of Pakistani Army Chief during the military commanders’ conference at Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Additionally, the military forum also expressed ‘concern’ over the loss of innocent lives during the ongoing Hamas – Israel War.

These comments were reported on the official X (formerly twitter) handle of the media wing of the military, more than a week since the Palestinian Hamas attacked Israel. A similar reaction also came about from the personal X handle of Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar Ul Haq Kakar. PM Kakar in his message on X asked for ‘restraint’ on both sides and repeated Pakistan’s call for a ‘Two-State Solution’ to the Palestinian issue.

These reactions are somewhat ‘mild’ when compared to the statements of Pakistani officials during the previous conflicts in Palestine. For instance, the Pakistani government officials openly called Israel a ‘terrorist state’ and ‘an aggressor’ during the 2009 and 2014 conflicts in the besieged city of Gaza.

Why is Pakistan’s reaction towards recent Israeli aggression ‘tender’?

Pakistan claims to have an independent foreign policy but the reality has always been the opposite. Pakistan’s foreign policy has always been subject to her relationships with United States, China and Saudi Arabia. In the words of a seasoned diplomat, ‘whenever there is a clash of interests or narratives of the superpowers, Pakistan tries not to align with any of them and proceeds with caution’.

Pakistan recently faced such a conundrum, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Pakistani government at the moment decided not to align with the rest of the world in condemnation of the Russian actions but instead opted to adopt a ‘neutral’ stance. This episode of so-called ‘neutrality’ took its toll on Pakistani political infrastructure. Expressing resentment over the non-partisan stance of Pakistan, American diplomats made it very clear to their Pakistani counterparts that such ‘posture of Pakistan was not acceptable at all’. And the rest is history in the form of cipher controversy.

Pakistan’s unstable and volatile economic situation also somewhat limits the scope of her foreign policy. For the past year or so fears of an economic meltdown and a fiscal default have loomed large over the State of Pakistan. Pakistan was saved from bankruptcy only when friendly countries such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and China chipped in Billions of Dollars to boost up country’s forex reserves.

The incumbent Pakistani government failed to secure resumption of a financial loan program with IMF from June 2022 till June 2023. It was not until certain arrangements were agreed between Pakistan and United States that the IMF agreed to an interim bailout package in July 2023.

The economic turmoil in Pakistan was only prevented from happening by contributions of different countries. And since this recent conflict between Hamas and Israel started, America has taken up a staunch stance in favor of Israel in contrast to the Saudi position. Hence, Pakistan is reluctant to woo any of her global partners.

What prevents Pakistan from towing the West’s position – in support of Israel?

There are no diplomatic ties between Israel and Pakistan. And Pakistan has categorically refused to proceed with diplomatic relationship with Israel till the establishment of a sovereign State of Palestine. The same has been the position of almost all of the Muslim states for better part of the last 7 decades.

Pakistan boasts the biggest military in the Muslim world and that comes armed with nuclear arsenal at its back. And for long the right wing religious political parties in Pakistan have led campaigns against any moves to normalize ties with Israel, at the behest of the military establishment of Pakistan. The staging public protests and rallies against the Israel has radicalized the society against the regime in Israel. The process which took decades brewing cannot be undone at an instance.

Although there has been no public protest against Israel that was sponsored by the caretaker government of Pakistan. But there have been mass public protests particularly arranged by the right wing Jamaat-e-Islami. The massive outbreaks of public protests are absent till the moment – mainly because this recent conflict was ignited by Hamas. Lack of agitation by right wing political parties could also be attributed to the ‘cautious’ military establishment. This further becomes clear by the statement of Molana Fazal ur Rehman, who asked Hamas to respect the human rights of the people of Israel. Fazal ur Rehman is the leader of the one of the biggest right wing political parties of Pakistan with close ties to the military establishment.

By keeping a rather placid stance on the recent aggression of the Israeli Defense Forces on the people of Palestine, Pakistan also keeps the possibility of (future) normalization of ties with the Jewish State. In the weeks and months leading to the recent escalation of events, it was widely reported that Saudi Arabia was moving towards normalization of ties with Israel. And it was also assumed that once Saudi’s recognize Israel, Pakistan would follow suit. Although, the Saudi government has announced that it has put on hold all matters leading to normalization of ties Israel, indefinitely. But if the time comes (in future) for Saudi Arabia to reopen channels with Israel, and Pakistan decides to follow suit then Pakistan would definitely prefer not to have any foul statements or steps to cause any discontent at any level.